Time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang

Tourism forecasting can lead to an important element in tourism industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government is profitable. From economy perspective, eco-tourism is a growing business and it is an important indicator to the tourism industry. It also generates inco...

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Main Author:	Megat Muhammad Afif, Megat Muainuddin
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2021
Subjects:	Q Science (General) QA Mathematics
Online Access:	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/34964/1/Time%20arrival%20in%20series%20forecasting%20model%20for%20tourist%20National%20Park%20Kuala%20Tahan%20Pahang.ir.pdf
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id	my-ump-ir.34964
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-ump-ir.349642022-10-14T02:54:07Z Time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang 2021-03 Megat Muhammad Afif, Megat Muainuddin Q Science (General) QA Mathematics Tourism forecasting can lead to an important element in tourism industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government is profitable. From economy perspective, eco-tourism is a growing business and it is an important indicator to the tourism industry. It also generates income revenue to the owner and surrounding communities. This research aims to forecast the eco-tourism demand based on number of tourist arrival for both local and foreign tourist at National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang. The forecasting models used are seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential smoothing. Both forecasting models are compared and assessed using Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The result demonstrated that the best model to forecast the number of tourist arrival in National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang is SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,0,1) 12 which is based on the smallest value of MAPE, RMSE and MSE. Hence, the exponential smoothing is not as good as the SARIMA model in forecasting tourist arrival for the data used. In future study, SARIMA model can be used to compare between the local and foreign tourist arrival for eco-tourism destination. 2021-03 Thesis http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/34964/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/34964/1/Time%20arrival%20in%20series%20forecasting%20model%20for%20tourist%20National%20Park%20Kuala%20Tahan%20Pahang.ir.pdf pdf en public masters Universiti Malaysia Pahang Centre for Mathematical Sciences
institution	Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah
collection	UMPSA Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	Q Science (General) QA Mathematics
spellingShingle	Q Science (General) QA Mathematics Megat Muhammad Afif, Megat Muainuddin Time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang
description	Tourism forecasting can lead to an important element in tourism industry to ensure that each investment by individuals, companies and government is profitable. From economy perspective, eco-tourism is a growing business and it is an important indicator to the tourism industry. It also generates income revenue to the owner and surrounding communities. This research aims to forecast the eco-tourism demand based on number of tourist arrival for both local and foreign tourist at National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang. The forecasting models used are seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and exponential smoothing. Both forecasting models are compared and assessed using Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The result demonstrated that the best model to forecast the number of tourist arrival in National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang is SARIMA (1,0,0)(1,0,1) 12 which is based on the smallest value of MAPE, RMSE and MSE. Hence, the exponential smoothing is not as good as the SARIMA model in forecasting tourist arrival for the data used. In future study, SARIMA model can be used to compare between the local and foreign tourist arrival for eco-tourism destination.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Megat Muhammad Afif, Megat Muainuddin
author_facet	Megat Muhammad Afif, Megat Muainuddin
author_sort	Megat Muhammad Afif, Megat Muainuddin
title	Time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang
title_short	Time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang
title_full	Time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang
title_fullStr	Time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang
title_full_unstemmed	Time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang
title_sort	time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist national park kuala tahan, pahang
granting_institution	Universiti Malaysia Pahang
granting_department	Centre for Mathematical Sciences
publishDate	2021
url	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/34964/1/Time%20arrival%20in%20series%20forecasting%20model%20for%20tourist%20National%20Park%20Kuala%20Tahan%20Pahang.ir.pdf
_version_	1783732219735441408

Time arrival in series forecasting model for tourist National Park Kuala Tahan, Pahang

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