Modelling the Rabies Transmission Dynamics and Control in Sarawak

In July 2017, the historically rabies-free Sarawak notified its first-ever case of rabies involving two children from the Serian district. As of 2022, rabies is still ongoing in Sarawak and all of the human cases have been classified as dog-mediated rabies. However, modelling studies of rabies in Sa...

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Main Author:	Nur Asheila, Abdul Taib
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English English English
Published:	2023
Subjects:	QA75 Electronic computers Computer science
Online Access:	http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/42418/3/Master%20Sc.%20Thesis_NUR%20ASHEILA%20BINTI%20ABDUL%20TAIB.fulltext.pdf http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/42418/4/Nur%20Asheila%20Bt%20Haji%20Abdul%20Taib_dsva.pdf http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/42418/5/Thesis%20NUR%20ASHEILA%20BINTI%20ABDUL%20TAIB%20-24%20pages.pdf
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spelling	my-unimas-ir.424182023-08-03T05:24:28Z Modelling the Rabies Transmission Dynamics and Control in Sarawak 2023 Nur Asheila, Abdul Taib QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science In July 2017, the historically rabies-free Sarawak notified its first-ever case of rabies involving two children from the Serian district. As of 2022, rabies is still ongoing in Sarawak and all of the human cases have been classified as dog-mediated rabies. However, modelling studies of rabies in Sarawak are still scarce despite the evolving epidemic in the state. Hence, this research aims to fill the research gap by developing the first mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of rabies among the human population and dog population in Malaysia, in particular Sarawak, and further explore the long-term trend of the disease. By employing the Next Generation Matrix approach, this study will also be the first to determine and estimate the effective reproduction number of rabies in Sarawak. Other objective includes identifying the most influential parameters in the disease dynamics by performing local sensitivity analysis on the model parameters. In this study, data on human rabies in Sarawak were mainly collected from the official online press statement made by the Director-General of Health Malaysia, which include information such as bite cases, number of confirmed cases, post-exposure prophylaxis treatment, and rabies onset date. We have formulated a deterministic, compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Vaccinated (SEIV) model that incorporates the dynamics of dog-to-dog and dog-to-human rabies transmission in Sarawak. To scale it to a local context, this model considers the intervention measures conducted by the Sarawak State Health Department and the Department of Veterinary Services Sarawak. In a long run, the model has predicted that the rabies cases in Sarawak would continue to decline, before experiencing a slight bump after 100 months from the initial outbreak in July 2017. Whereas the effective reproduction number for Sarawak rabies is estimated to be 3.06, further model analysis have shown that the disease-free equilibrium point is generally stable and this result has enabled us to ascertain that Sarawak can be rabies-free. Consequently, we have estimated the value of the herd immunity threshold to be 0.67. Thus, approximately 70% of the dog population in Sarawak should be vaccinated annually in order to achieve herd immunity. Apart from intensifying the mass dog vaccination campaigns, mobile vaccine units can be deployed to increase vaccination coverage, while oral rabies vaccination can be an alternative for the free-roaming dog population. Also, our sensitivity analysis revealed the significance of dog population management as a mainstay in any rabies control programmes. In conclusion, towards achieving the goal of zero dog-mediated rabies deaths by 2030, the Sarawak authorities should strengthen their efforts in reducing the dog population through the implementation of humane interventions such as the Trap-Neuter-Vaccinate-Relocate (TNVR) method, targeted removal of strays, chemical sterilisation and surgical sterilisation for dogs. UNIMAS 2023 Thesis http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/42418/ http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/42418/3/Master%20Sc.%20Thesis_NUR%20ASHEILA%20BINTI%20ABDUL%20TAIB.fulltext.pdf text en validuser http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/42418/4/Nur%20Asheila%20Bt%20Haji%20Abdul%20Taib_dsva.pdf text en staffonly http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/42418/5/Thesis%20NUR%20ASHEILA%20BINTI%20ABDUL%20TAIB%20-24%20pages.pdf text en public masters Universiti Malaysia Sarawak Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology
institution	Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
collection	UNIMAS Institutional Repository
language	English English English
topic	QA75 Electronic computers Computer science
spellingShingle	QA75 Electronic computers Computer science Nur Asheila, Abdul Taib Modelling the Rabies Transmission Dynamics and Control in Sarawak
description	In July 2017, the historically rabies-free Sarawak notified its first-ever case of rabies involving two children from the Serian district. As of 2022, rabies is still ongoing in Sarawak and all of the human cases have been classified as dog-mediated rabies. However, modelling studies of rabies in Sarawak are still scarce despite the evolving epidemic in the state. Hence, this research aims to fill the research gap by developing the first mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of rabies among the human population and dog population in Malaysia, in particular Sarawak, and further explore the long-term trend of the disease. By employing the Next Generation Matrix approach, this study will also be the first to determine and estimate the effective reproduction number of rabies in Sarawak. Other objective includes identifying the most influential parameters in the disease dynamics by performing local sensitivity analysis on the model parameters. In this study, data on human rabies in Sarawak were mainly collected from the official online press statement made by the Director-General of Health Malaysia, which include information such as bite cases, number of confirmed cases, post-exposure prophylaxis treatment, and rabies onset date. We have formulated a deterministic, compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Vaccinated (SEIV) model that incorporates the dynamics of dog-to-dog and dog-to-human rabies transmission in Sarawak. To scale it to a local context, this model considers the intervention measures conducted by the Sarawak State Health Department and the Department of Veterinary Services Sarawak. In a long run, the model has predicted that the rabies cases in Sarawak would continue to decline, before experiencing a slight bump after 100 months from the initial outbreak in July 2017. Whereas the effective reproduction number for Sarawak rabies is estimated to be 3.06, further model analysis have shown that the disease-free equilibrium point is generally stable and this result has enabled us to ascertain that Sarawak can be rabies-free. Consequently, we have estimated the value of the herd immunity threshold to be 0.67. Thus, approximately 70% of the dog population in Sarawak should be vaccinated annually in order to achieve herd immunity. Apart from intensifying the mass dog vaccination campaigns, mobile vaccine units can be deployed to increase vaccination coverage, while oral rabies vaccination can be an alternative for the free-roaming dog population. Also, our sensitivity analysis revealed the significance of dog population management as a mainstay in any rabies control programmes. In conclusion, towards achieving the goal of zero dog-mediated rabies deaths by 2030, the Sarawak authorities should strengthen their efforts in reducing the dog population through the implementation of humane interventions such as the Trap-Neuter-Vaccinate-Relocate (TNVR) method, targeted removal of strays, chemical sterilisation and surgical sterilisation for dogs.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Nur Asheila, Abdul Taib
author_facet	Nur Asheila, Abdul Taib
author_sort	Nur Asheila, Abdul Taib
title	Modelling the Rabies Transmission Dynamics and Control in Sarawak
title_short	Modelling the Rabies Transmission Dynamics and Control in Sarawak
title_full	Modelling the Rabies Transmission Dynamics and Control in Sarawak
title_fullStr	Modelling the Rabies Transmission Dynamics and Control in Sarawak
title_full_unstemmed	Modelling the Rabies Transmission Dynamics and Control in Sarawak
title_sort	modelling the rabies transmission dynamics and control in sarawak
granting_institution	Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
granting_department	Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology
publishDate	2023
url	http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/42418/3/Master%20Sc.%20Thesis_NUR%20ASHEILA%20BINTI%20ABDUL%20TAIB.fulltext.pdf http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/42418/4/Nur%20Asheila%20Bt%20Haji%20Abdul%20Taib_dsva.pdf http://ir.unimas.my/id/eprint/42418/5/Thesis%20NUR%20ASHEILA%20BINTI%20ABDUL%20TAIB%20-24%20pages.pdf
_version_	1783728537564348416

Modelling the Rabies Transmission Dynamics and Control in Sarawak

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