Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map

Seismic risk evaluation at a high potential area such as the Ranau district in Sabah is very important. However, the current method of seismic risk analysis through one of its parameters, seismic vulnerability, is mostly focused on assessing the physical damage of structures of the affected area. Th...

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Main Author:	Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2022
Subjects:	Q Science (General)
Online Access:	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/100351/1/JanatulAzieraAbdPMJIIT2022.pdf
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spelling	my-utm-ep.1003512023-04-13T02:17:55Z Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map 2022 Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera Q Science (General) TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering Seismic risk evaluation at a high potential area such as the Ranau district in Sabah is very important. However, the current method of seismic risk analysis through one of its parameters, seismic vulnerability, is mostly focused on assessing the physical damage of structures of the affected area. Thus, this research aimed to develop a simple and novel seismic risk model, specifically for Ranau, by combining two parameters; vulnerability and hazard through Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based analysis. The model was developed from hybrid models previously used individually for disaster-related analysis. The hybrid models experimented with were the Frequency Ratio-Index of Entropy (FR-IoE), (FR-IoE) with Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), (FR-IoE) with Logistic Regression (LR) and (FR-IoE) with Naïve Bayes (NB). The seismic vulnerability results computed from these hybrid models were validated using the areas under the curve (AUC) of the relative operating characteristic (ROC). It was found that the NB model showed the lowest reliability with the AUC values of 0.640 and 0.741 for its success rate and prediction rate, respectively. The AUC values for other models' success rates are 0.853, 0.856, and 0.869 for FR-IoE, (FR-IoE) AHP, and (FR-IoE) LR, respectively, while their prediction rates are 0.863, 0.906, and 0.844 for FR-IoE, (FR-IoE) AHP and (FR-IoE) LR, respectively. A seismic hazard analysis was performed to complete the seismic risk model computation. The determination of seismic hazard was done by evaluating the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), which was derived from Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). From the PGA computation, a non-linear regression model with an accuracy of R2 = 0.997 was obtained from constraint Campbell (1981) fitted GMPE, which was the best-fitted model compared to the other 5 GMPEs tested. Finally, the novel fitted GMPE for Ranau using the Campbell (1981) fitted GMPE were integrated with the seismic vulnerability obtained from the hybrid (FR-IoE) AHP model to derive the seismic risk information for Ranau, Sabah in the form of a seismic risk map. In the long run, the computed seismic risk map obtained from these findings can be implemented for disaster preparedness and mitigation purposes and is useful the future earthquake disaster. 2022 Thesis http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/100351/ http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/100351/1/JanatulAzieraAbdPMJIIT2022.pdf application/pdf en public http://dms.library.utm.my:8080/vital/access/manager/Repository/vital:150998 phd doctoral Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
collection	UTM Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	Q Science (General) Q Science (General)
spellingShingle	Q Science (General) Q Science (General) Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
description	Seismic risk evaluation at a high potential area such as the Ranau district in Sabah is very important. However, the current method of seismic risk analysis through one of its parameters, seismic vulnerability, is mostly focused on assessing the physical damage of structures of the affected area. Thus, this research aimed to develop a simple and novel seismic risk model, specifically for Ranau, by combining two parameters; vulnerability and hazard through Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based analysis. The model was developed from hybrid models previously used individually for disaster-related analysis. The hybrid models experimented with were the Frequency Ratio-Index of Entropy (FR-IoE), (FR-IoE) with Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), (FR-IoE) with Logistic Regression (LR) and (FR-IoE) with Naïve Bayes (NB). The seismic vulnerability results computed from these hybrid models were validated using the areas under the curve (AUC) of the relative operating characteristic (ROC). It was found that the NB model showed the lowest reliability with the AUC values of 0.640 and 0.741 for its success rate and prediction rate, respectively. The AUC values for other models' success rates are 0.853, 0.856, and 0.869 for FR-IoE, (FR-IoE) AHP, and (FR-IoE) LR, respectively, while their prediction rates are 0.863, 0.906, and 0.844 for FR-IoE, (FR-IoE) AHP and (FR-IoE) LR, respectively. A seismic hazard analysis was performed to complete the seismic risk model computation. The determination of seismic hazard was done by evaluating the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), which was derived from Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE). From the PGA computation, a non-linear regression model with an accuracy of R2 = 0.997 was obtained from constraint Campbell (1981) fitted GMPE, which was the best-fitted model compared to the other 5 GMPEs tested. Finally, the novel fitted GMPE for Ranau using the Campbell (1981) fitted GMPE were integrated with the seismic vulnerability obtained from the hybrid (FR-IoE) AHP model to derive the seismic risk information for Ranau, Sabah in the form of a seismic risk map. In the long run, the computed seismic risk map obtained from these findings can be implemented for disaster preparedness and mitigation purposes and is useful the future earthquake disaster.
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Doctor of Philosophy (PhD.)
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera
author_facet	Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera
author_sort	Abd. Razak, Janatul Aziera
title	Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
title_short	Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
title_full	Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
title_fullStr	Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
title_full_unstemmed	Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
title_sort	application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology
granting_department	Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology
publishDate	2022
url	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/100351/1/JanatulAzieraAbdPMJIIT2022.pdf
_version_	1776100680043331584

Application of risk assessment models for seismic risk map

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