Climate change impact on precipitation and streamflow in a humid tropical watershed

The increasing rate of the global surface temperature in climate change will have a significant impact on local hydrological regimes and water resources. This situation leads to the assessment of the climate change impacts has become a priority. The objectives of this study are to determine the curr...

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Main Author:	Hassan, Zulkarnain
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2012
Subjects:	TA Engineering (General) Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/31943/1/ZulkarnainHassanMFKA2012.pdf
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id	my-utm-ep.31943
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spelling	my-utm-ep.319432017-09-25T05:44:45Z Climate change impact on precipitation and streamflow in a humid tropical watershed 2012-10 Hassan, Zulkarnain TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) The increasing rate of the global surface temperature in climate change will have a significant impact on local hydrological regimes and water resources. This situation leads to the assessment of the climate change impacts has become a priority. The objectives of this study are to determine the current and future climate change scenario using the downscaling methods and to assess the climate change impact on stream flow discharge. It describes the investigation on precipitation and temperature changes which influenced by the large-scale atmospheric variables for several selected rainfall stations in the Kerian watershed and one selected temperature station in the Ipoh watershed, Peninsular Malaysia. In this study, the Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations from Hadley Centre 3rd generation with scenario A2 (HadCM3 A2) have been used, and downscaled into a fine resolution daily rainfall and temperature series appropriate for local scale hydrological impact studies. The proposed downscaling methods applied in this study are the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM). The changes in stream flow discharge are assessed using Identication of Unit Hydrograph and Component Flows from Rainfall, Evaporation and Streamflow Data (IHACRES) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) methods. It describes the investigation on possible future stream flow changes for four selected flow gauging stations represent the Kerian watershed. The SDSM and LARS-WG similarly are able to simulate the mean daily rainfall satisfactory. However, the SDSM model is better than the LARS-WG model in downscaling of the daily maximum and minimum temperature. Both models give an increase trend on projection of future temperature for all months. The LARS-WG and SDSM models obviously are feasible and reliable methods for use as tools in quantifying effects of climate change condition on a local scale. The rainfall and temperature data downscaled with the SDSM and LARS-WG models obviously are not similar in the simulation of stream flow discharge using the ANN and IHACRES models. ANN yields a better performance than IHACRES. The study area is apparently will gain consistently increasing trend in the mean annual temperature of about 0.24-4.23oC, and facing varying rainfall depth for the next 100 years. While the data downscaled with SDSM resulted in an increase in mean daily flow of about 10-40% in the coming 100 years, the one downscaled with LARS-WG resulted in a decrease in mean daily flow of up to 40%. This is a clear indication of how the outcome of a hydrologic impact study can be affected by the selection of any one particular downscaling technique over the other. The implication that the flood or drought may frequently experienced in the future corresponding to climate scenario HadCM3 A2. 2012-10 Thesis http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/31943/ http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/31943/1/ZulkarnainHassanMFKA2012.pdf application/pdf en public masters Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Civil Engineering Faculty of Civil Engineering
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
collection	UTM Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	TA Engineering (General) Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle	TA Engineering (General) Civil engineering (General) Hassan, Zulkarnain Climate change impact on precipitation and streamflow in a humid tropical watershed
description	The increasing rate of the global surface temperature in climate change will have a significant impact on local hydrological regimes and water resources. This situation leads to the assessment of the climate change impacts has become a priority. The objectives of this study are to determine the current and future climate change scenario using the downscaling methods and to assess the climate change impact on stream flow discharge. It describes the investigation on precipitation and temperature changes which influenced by the large-scale atmospheric variables for several selected rainfall stations in the Kerian watershed and one selected temperature station in the Ipoh watershed, Peninsular Malaysia. In this study, the Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations from Hadley Centre 3rd generation with scenario A2 (HadCM3 A2) have been used, and downscaled into a fine resolution daily rainfall and temperature series appropriate for local scale hydrological impact studies. The proposed downscaling methods applied in this study are the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and Statistical Down-Scaling Model (SDSM). The changes in stream flow discharge are assessed using Identication of Unit Hydrograph and Component Flows from Rainfall, Evaporation and Streamflow Data (IHACRES) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) methods. It describes the investigation on possible future stream flow changes for four selected flow gauging stations represent the Kerian watershed. The SDSM and LARS-WG similarly are able to simulate the mean daily rainfall satisfactory. However, the SDSM model is better than the LARS-WG model in downscaling of the daily maximum and minimum temperature. Both models give an increase trend on projection of future temperature for all months. The LARS-WG and SDSM models obviously are feasible and reliable methods for use as tools in quantifying effects of climate change condition on a local scale. The rainfall and temperature data downscaled with the SDSM and LARS-WG models obviously are not similar in the simulation of stream flow discharge using the ANN and IHACRES models. ANN yields a better performance than IHACRES. The study area is apparently will gain consistently increasing trend in the mean annual temperature of about 0.24-4.23oC, and facing varying rainfall depth for the next 100 years. While the data downscaled with SDSM resulted in an increase in mean daily flow of about 10-40% in the coming 100 years, the one downscaled with LARS-WG resulted in a decrease in mean daily flow of up to 40%. This is a clear indication of how the outcome of a hydrologic impact study can be affected by the selection of any one particular downscaling technique over the other. The implication that the flood or drought may frequently experienced in the future corresponding to climate scenario HadCM3 A2.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Hassan, Zulkarnain
author_facet	Hassan, Zulkarnain
author_sort	Hassan, Zulkarnain
title	Climate change impact on precipitation and streamflow in a humid tropical watershed
title_short	Climate change impact on precipitation and streamflow in a humid tropical watershed
title_full	Climate change impact on precipitation and streamflow in a humid tropical watershed
title_fullStr	Climate change impact on precipitation and streamflow in a humid tropical watershed
title_full_unstemmed	Climate change impact on precipitation and streamflow in a humid tropical watershed
title_sort	climate change impact on precipitation and streamflow in a humid tropical watershed
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Civil Engineering
granting_department	Faculty of Civil Engineering
publishDate	2012
url	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/31943/1/ZulkarnainHassanMFKA2012.pdf
_version_	1747815883201314816

Climate change impact on precipitation and streamflow in a humid tropical watershed

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