A hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model drought forecasting in Kuala Terengganu

Drought is a global phenomenon which adversely affects the sustainability of one nation which encompasses three prominent aspects such as economic, social and environmental. Due to that, it has immensely attracted the awareness of environmentalists, ecologists, hydrologists, meteorologists, geologis...

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Main Author:	Ho, Mee Chyong
Format:	Thesis
Published:	2013
Subjects:	QC Physics
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id	my-utm-ep.42054
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-utm-ep.420542020-07-27T03:44:17Z A hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model drought forecasting in Kuala Terengganu 2013 Ho, Mee Chyong QC Physics Drought is a global phenomenon which adversely affects the sustainability of one nation which encompasses three prominent aspects such as economic, social and environmental. Due to that, it has immensely attracted the awareness of environmentalists, ecologists, hydrologists, meteorologists, geologists and agricultural scientists. Therefore, drought forecasting is essential for several key players particularly the governments to evaluate the drought occurrence in order to give early warning for preparedness and mitigation measures. In this study, a hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model based on standardized precipitation index (SPI) was developed to forecast drought in Kuala Terengganu. Monthly rainfall data of rain gauge station, Setor JPS Kuala Terengganu for period January 1982 to January 2012 was used in this study. Multiplicative decomposition method was employed to identify and isolate the underlying components of SPI time series for multiple time scales using Minitab 16.0. Then the isolated components were gone through the four-step iterative procedure of Box-Jenkins which are identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. After that, the forecasted values of components were reassembled in order to gain a forecast based on the time series decomposition. The forecasting performance of the hybrid model was compared with the Box-Jenkins model. Two statistical measurements, mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE) were applied in this study to measure the accuracy of the forecasting models. In brief, the accuracy measure results indicated that the hybrid model can prevail over the Box-Jenkins model. 2013 Thesis http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/42054/ masters Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science Faculty of Science
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
collection	UTM Institutional Repository
topic	QC Physics
spellingShingle	QC Physics Ho, Mee Chyong A hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model drought forecasting in Kuala Terengganu
description	Drought is a global phenomenon which adversely affects the sustainability of one nation which encompasses three prominent aspects such as economic, social and environmental. Due to that, it has immensely attracted the awareness of environmentalists, ecologists, hydrologists, meteorologists, geologists and agricultural scientists. Therefore, drought forecasting is essential for several key players particularly the governments to evaluate the drought occurrence in order to give early warning for preparedness and mitigation measures. In this study, a hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model based on standardized precipitation index (SPI) was developed to forecast drought in Kuala Terengganu. Monthly rainfall data of rain gauge station, Setor JPS Kuala Terengganu for period January 1982 to January 2012 was used in this study. Multiplicative decomposition method was employed to identify and isolate the underlying components of SPI time series for multiple time scales using Minitab 16.0. Then the isolated components were gone through the four-step iterative procedure of Box-Jenkins which are identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. After that, the forecasted values of components were reassembled in order to gain a forecast based on the time series decomposition. The forecasting performance of the hybrid model was compared with the Box-Jenkins model. Two statistical measurements, mean absolute error (MAE) and mean squared error (MSE) were applied in this study to measure the accuracy of the forecasting models. In brief, the accuracy measure results indicated that the hybrid model can prevail over the Box-Jenkins model.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Ho, Mee Chyong
author_facet	Ho, Mee Chyong
author_sort	Ho, Mee Chyong
title	A hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model drought forecasting in Kuala Terengganu
title_short	A hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model drought forecasting in Kuala Terengganu
title_full	A hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model drought forecasting in Kuala Terengganu
title_fullStr	A hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model drought forecasting in Kuala Terengganu
title_full_unstemmed	A hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model drought forecasting in Kuala Terengganu
title_sort	hybrid box-jenkins and decomposition model drought forecasting in kuala terengganu
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Science
granting_department	Faculty of Science
publishDate	2013
_version_	1747816678694060032

A hybrid Box-Jenkins and decomposition model drought forecasting in Kuala Terengganu

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