Climate change projection and drought characterization in Bangladesh

One of the biggest threats of the climatic change is aberrant pattern or distribution of rainfall that results to drought. The main objective of this research was to develop a methodological framework to assess the impacts of climate change on seasonal drought characteristics with uncertainty. Bangl...

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Main Author:	Alamgir, Md. Mahiuddin
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2017
Subjects:	TA Engineering (General) Civil engineering (General)
Online Access:	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/79370/1/MdMahiuddinAlamgirPFKA2017.pdf
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id	my-utm-ep.79370
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-utm-ep.793702018-10-14T08:45:00Z Climate change projection and drought characterization in Bangladesh 2017 Alamgir, Md. Mahiuddin TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) One of the biggest threats of the climatic change is aberrant pattern or distribution of rainfall that results to drought. The main objective of this research was to develop a methodological framework to assess the impacts of climate change on seasonal drought characteristics with uncertainty. Bangladesh, one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change was considered as the study area for implementation of the framework. An ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) were used for downscaling and projection of rainfall and temperature under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Two state of art data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used for the development of downscaling models and Quantile Mapping (QM) approach was used to remove biases in GCMs. The observed and future projected rainfall data were used to characterize the seasonal droughts using Severity-Area-Frequency (SAF) curves developed for different climatic and major crop growing seasons. The results revealed superior performance of SVM in downscaling rainfall and temperature in tropical climate in terms of all standard statistics. Downscaling of CMIP5 GCMs projections revealed a change in annual average rainfall in Bangladesh in the range of -8.6% in the northeast to +11.9% in the northwest, which indicates that spatial distribution of rainfall of Bangladesh will be more homogeneous in future. The maximum and minimum temperatures of Bangladesh were projected to increase in the range of 0.8 to 4.3ºC and 1.0 to 4.8ºC, respectively under different RCPs. Future projection of droughts revealed that affected areas will increase for higher severity and higher return period droughts. Overall, the country will be more affected by higher return period Kharif (May- October) and monsoon droughts, and lower return period pre-monsoon and postmonsoon droughts due to climate change. 2017 Thesis http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/79370/ http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/79370/1/MdMahiuddinAlamgirPFKA2017.pdf application/pdf en public phd doctoral Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Civil Engineering Faculty of Civil Engineering
institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
collection	UTM Institutional Repository
language	English
topic	TA Engineering (General) Civil engineering (General)
spellingShingle	TA Engineering (General) Civil engineering (General) Alamgir, Md. Mahiuddin Climate change projection and drought characterization in Bangladesh
description	One of the biggest threats of the climatic change is aberrant pattern or distribution of rainfall that results to drought. The main objective of this research was to develop a methodological framework to assess the impacts of climate change on seasonal drought characteristics with uncertainty. Bangladesh, one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change was considered as the study area for implementation of the framework. An ensemble of general circulation models (GCMs) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) were used for downscaling and projection of rainfall and temperature under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. Two state of art data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used for the development of downscaling models and Quantile Mapping (QM) approach was used to remove biases in GCMs. The observed and future projected rainfall data were used to characterize the seasonal droughts using Severity-Area-Frequency (SAF) curves developed for different climatic and major crop growing seasons. The results revealed superior performance of SVM in downscaling rainfall and temperature in tropical climate in terms of all standard statistics. Downscaling of CMIP5 GCMs projections revealed a change in annual average rainfall in Bangladesh in the range of -8.6% in the northeast to +11.9% in the northwest, which indicates that spatial distribution of rainfall of Bangladesh will be more homogeneous in future. The maximum and minimum temperatures of Bangladesh were projected to increase in the range of 0.8 to 4.3ºC and 1.0 to 4.8ºC, respectively under different RCPs. Future projection of droughts revealed that affected areas will increase for higher severity and higher return period droughts. Overall, the country will be more affected by higher return period Kharif (May- October) and monsoon droughts, and lower return period pre-monsoon and postmonsoon droughts due to climate change.
format	Thesis
qualification_name	Doctor of Philosophy (PhD.)
qualification_level	Doctorate
author	Alamgir, Md. Mahiuddin
author_facet	Alamgir, Md. Mahiuddin
author_sort	Alamgir, Md. Mahiuddin
title	Climate change projection and drought characterization in Bangladesh
title_short	Climate change projection and drought characterization in Bangladesh
title_full	Climate change projection and drought characterization in Bangladesh
title_fullStr	Climate change projection and drought characterization in Bangladesh
title_full_unstemmed	Climate change projection and drought characterization in Bangladesh
title_sort	climate change projection and drought characterization in bangladesh
granting_institution	Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Faculty of Civil Engineering
granting_department	Faculty of Civil Engineering
publishDate	2017
url	http://eprints.utm.my/id/eprint/79370/1/MdMahiuddinAlamgirPFKA2017.pdf
_version_	1747818211986898944

Climate change projection and drought characterization in Bangladesh

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