The development of stochastic Sir and S(ImIf)R models for heterosexual HIV and AIDS disease mapping in Malaysia (IR)

The purpose of this research is to develop an alternative method of relative risk estimation based on stochastic discrete time-space model. There are two main methods proposed which are stochastic discrete time-space SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model and S(ImIf)R (Susceptible-[Infected male]-...

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Main Author:	Sufi Hafawati Ideris
Format:	thesis
Language:	eng
Published:	2016
Subjects:	QA Mathematics
Online Access:	https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=2689
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spelling	oai:ir.upsi.edu.my:26892020-02-27 The development of stochastic Sir and S(ImIf)R models for heterosexual HIV and AIDS disease mapping in Malaysia (IR) 2016 Sufi Hafawati Ideris QA Mathematics The purpose of this research is to develop an alternative method of relative risk estimation based on stochastic discrete time-space model. There are two main methods proposed which are stochastic discrete time-space SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model and S(ImIf)R (Susceptible-[Infected male]-[infected female]-Removed) according to gender for HIV and AIDS. Firstly, the deterministic compartmental SIR model that is suitable for the transmission of HIV and AIDS is discussed. This model then is adapted to develop corresponding discrete time-space stochastic SIR model. This is followed by the discussion of the alternative method of relative risk estimation based on the stochastic SIR model. Furthermore, applications of the common methods such as SMR and Poisson-gamma using HIV and AIDS data from Malaysia is also discussed in this thesis and the results are compared in tables, graphs and maps. Subsequently, discussion on modelling of S(ImIf)R model based on gender is discussed in the same regulation of discussion based on SIR in order to identify risk for male and female respectively. Finally, the results of analysis showed that the alternative relative risk estimation method based on the discrete time-space stochastic SIR model and S(ImIf)R according to gender have small number of range for estimating relative risk which has been examined by using goodness-of-fit method compared to the other common approaches. As conclusion, the proposed models are better than to the common methods in estimating of relative risk. However, the SIR model can be used for the analysis of HIV and AIDS generally while S(ImIf)R model is used to analyse relative risk specifically for gender. Besides that, the proposed model also takes into account the transmission process of the disease while allowing spatial adjustment between risks in adjacent areas. The disease risk map in this study can be used as a tool to identify states that need more attention and further action by authorities at the same time to give awareness to society about the risks in the area where they live. Furthermore, this improvement of disease mapping is able to be used as a medical or inquiry tool in any corresponding HIV and AIDS research and development study. 2016 thesis https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=2689 https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=2689 text eng closedAccess Masters Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris Fakulti Sains dan Matematik N/A
institution	Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
collection	UPSI Digital Repository
language	eng
topic	QA Mathematics
spellingShingle	QA Mathematics Sufi Hafawati Ideris The development of stochastic Sir and S(ImIf)R models for heterosexual HIV and AIDS disease mapping in Malaysia (IR)
description	The purpose of this research is to develop an alternative method of relative risk estimation based on stochastic discrete time-space model. There are two main methods proposed which are stochastic discrete time-space SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model and S(ImIf)R (Susceptible-[Infected male]-[infected female]-Removed) according to gender for HIV and AIDS. Firstly, the deterministic compartmental SIR model that is suitable for the transmission of HIV and AIDS is discussed. This model then is adapted to develop corresponding discrete time-space stochastic SIR model. This is followed by the discussion of the alternative method of relative risk estimation based on the stochastic SIR model. Furthermore, applications of the common methods such as SMR and Poisson-gamma using HIV and AIDS data from Malaysia is also discussed in this thesis and the results are compared in tables, graphs and maps. Subsequently, discussion on modelling of S(ImIf)R model based on gender is discussed in the same regulation of discussion based on SIR in order to identify risk for male and female respectively. Finally, the results of analysis showed that the alternative relative risk estimation method based on the discrete time-space stochastic SIR model and S(ImIf)R according to gender have small number of range for estimating relative risk which has been examined by using goodness-of-fit method compared to the other common approaches. As conclusion, the proposed models are better than to the common methods in estimating of relative risk. However, the SIR model can be used for the analysis of HIV and AIDS generally while S(ImIf)R model is used to analyse relative risk specifically for gender. Besides that, the proposed model also takes into account the transmission process of the disease while allowing spatial adjustment between risks in adjacent areas. The disease risk map in this study can be used as a tool to identify states that need more attention and further action by authorities at the same time to give awareness to society about the risks in the area where they live. Furthermore, this improvement of disease mapping is able to be used as a medical or inquiry tool in any corresponding HIV and AIDS research and development study.
format	thesis
qualification_name
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Sufi Hafawati Ideris
author_facet	Sufi Hafawati Ideris
author_sort	Sufi Hafawati Ideris
title	The development of stochastic Sir and S(ImIf)R models for heterosexual HIV and AIDS disease mapping in Malaysia (IR)
title_short	The development of stochastic Sir and S(ImIf)R models for heterosexual HIV and AIDS disease mapping in Malaysia (IR)
title_full	The development of stochastic Sir and S(ImIf)R models for heterosexual HIV and AIDS disease mapping in Malaysia (IR)
title_fullStr	The development of stochastic Sir and S(ImIf)R models for heterosexual HIV and AIDS disease mapping in Malaysia (IR)
title_full_unstemmed	The development of stochastic Sir and S(ImIf)R models for heterosexual HIV and AIDS disease mapping in Malaysia (IR)
title_sort	development of stochastic sir and s(imif)r models for heterosexual hiv and aids disease mapping in malaysia (ir)
granting_institution	Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris
granting_department	Fakulti Sains dan Matematik
publishDate	2016
url	https://ir.upsi.edu.my/detailsg.php?det=2689
_version_	1747833027344465920

The development of stochastic Sir and S(ImIf)R models for heterosexual HIV and AIDS disease mapping in Malaysia (IR)

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