Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia

Tourism demand forecasting has been acknowledged by researchers as tourism industry involves a large investment and gives a high return to the organisations and to the countries. Among various tourism demand researches that have been published, yet little attention that focus on the new tourism prod...

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Main Author:	Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi
Format:	Thesis
Language:	English
Published:	2021
Subjects:	Q Science (General) QA Mathematics
Online Access:	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35262/1/Bass%20diffusion%20and%20grey%20models%20to%20forecast%20new%20tourism%20product%20a%20case%20study%20of%20Tanah%20Aina%20Resort.wm.pdf
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id	my-ump-ir.35262
record_format	uketd_dc
spelling	my-ump-ir.352622023-05-08T02:32:01Z Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia 2021-03 Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi Q Science (General) QA Mathematics Tourism demand forecasting has been acknowledged by researchers as tourism industry involves a large investment and gives a high return to the organisations and to the countries. Among various tourism demand researches that have been published, yet little attention that focus on the new tourism product forecasting. This study focuses on the application of Bass diffusion model (BDM) and grey Bass forecasting model to the new tourism product demand forecasting. Bass diffusion model is an influential model among researchers in forecasting the new product and grey forecasting model is popular because of its ability to handle as low as four data. The combination of these two models, called grey Bass forecasting model is used for the first time in the application of forecasting the new tourism product demand in Malaysia. The new tourism products studied are ecotourism resorts; Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya. Monthly data from Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya are collected from 2014 until 2018 and are converted to yearly data for the estimation of potential market. There are three parameters involved in both models namely; potential market, m, coefficient of innovation, pand coefficient of imitation,q. Parameters estimation method and different value of potential market are employed. The study finds that the grey Bass forecasting model has a better performance compared to the basic BDM for Tanah Aina Fahad dataset based on the evaluation of forecast using mean absolute percentage error. Besides, for Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya, BDM shows a better performance than grey Bass forecasting model but the value ofm gives a significant effect in the forecasting performance. Future research can be improved by using other methods in the estimation of parameters and applying the best values ofp andqto achieve the best forecast. 2021-03 Thesis http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35262/ http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35262/1/Bass%20diffusion%20and%20grey%20models%20to%20forecast%20new%20tourism%20product%20a%20case%20study%20of%20Tanah%20Aina%20Resort.wm.pdf pdf en public masters Universiti Malaysia Pahang Centre for Mathematical Sciences Abu, Noratikah
institution	Universiti Malaysia Pahang Al-Sultan Abdullah
collection	UMPSA Institutional Repository
language	English
advisor	Abu, Noratikah
topic	Q Science (General) QA Mathematics
spellingShingle	Q Science (General) QA Mathematics Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
description	Tourism demand forecasting has been acknowledged by researchers as tourism industry involves a large investment and gives a high return to the organisations and to the countries. Among various tourism demand researches that have been published, yet little attention that focus on the new tourism product forecasting. This study focuses on the application of Bass diffusion model (BDM) and grey Bass forecasting model to the new tourism product demand forecasting. Bass diffusion model is an influential model among researchers in forecasting the new product and grey forecasting model is popular because of its ability to handle as low as four data. The combination of these two models, called grey Bass forecasting model is used for the first time in the application of forecasting the new tourism product demand in Malaysia. The new tourism products studied are ecotourism resorts; Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya. Monthly data from Tanah Aina Fahad and Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya are collected from 2014 until 2018 and are converted to yearly data for the estimation of potential market. There are three parameters involved in both models namely; potential market, m, coefficient of innovation, pand coefficient of imitation,q. Parameters estimation method and different value of potential market are employed. The study finds that the grey Bass forecasting model has a better performance compared to the basic BDM for Tanah Aina Fahad dataset based on the evaluation of forecast using mean absolute percentage error. Besides, for Tanah Aina Farrah Soraya, BDM shows a better performance than grey Bass forecasting model but the value ofm gives a significant effect in the forecasting performance. Future research can be improved by using other methods in the estimation of parameters and applying the best values ofp andqto achieve the best forecast.
format	Thesis
qualification_level	Master's degree
author	Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi
author_facet	Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi
author_sort	Sarah Alyaa, Mohd Khaidi
title	Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
title_short	Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
title_full	Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
title_fullStr	Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed	Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia
title_sort	bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of tanah aina resort in malaysia
granting_institution	Universiti Malaysia Pahang
granting_department	Centre for Mathematical Sciences
publishDate	2021
url	http://umpir.ump.edu.my/id/eprint/35262/1/Bass%20diffusion%20and%20grey%20models%20to%20forecast%20new%20tourism%20product%20a%20case%20study%20of%20Tanah%20Aina%20Resort.wm.pdf
_version_	1783732227338665984

Bass diffusion and grey models to forecast new tourism product: a case study of Tanah Aina Resort in Malaysia

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